Territorial Bloggings

A Cogent Mélange of Lutheran & Pop-Culture Punditry
April 21, 2005

AI Conspiracy Theories

Posted by : ghp
Filed under : popmedia
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I started writing the following entry as a comment at Kiihnworld, which was itself responding to a posting over at Everyone Is Entitled To My Opinion, wherein it was offered that (to distill the post to its essence) the AI producers are giving Bo Bice an unfair advantage. I disagree with this assessment.

After checking out Terrie’s posting, and the comments, I’ve got to say that I really don’t think that there’s any undue rigging/influencing going on. At least not unless the producers are doing some really bizarre things to try and cover their tracks. Before further developing my own assessment, let me offer this caveat: The only way I think that the producers might possibly manipulate things would be if they totally disregarded vote totals. Now, the only way they could disprove this would be to release voting totals every week, and they have not seen fit to ever do so. I’m as much of a realist/fatalist/pessimist as the next guy, but for some reason I just don’t think that such fraud is being perpetrated. To think that it was happening, you’d almost have to think that the re-vote earlier this season was engineered as a way to throw us all off of the scent! You’d also have to believe that the producers’ active work against automated phone voting (which riddled Season 1 in particular) being able to skew voting results has also been disingenuous at best. Nope, I don’t think so…

Some Past Examples:

  • Season 1: Tamyra was widely regarded as the singer to beat, and was (IIRC) clearly a/the favorite of the judges. She was, however, waylaid by the horrific Nikki & her inexplicable voting bloc — inexplicable, that is, except for the fact that Simon savaged her in reviewing her performances & said she should & would be voted off. For several weeks, America proved him wrong. Kelly, the eventual (and deserving) winner, was not (IMO) a favorite of the producers, but was someone who improved every week, and built a following.
    BOTTOM LINE: If the producers were wont to meddle, Tamyra would’ve lasted longer than Nikki, and would’ve won, not Kelly.
  • Season 2: It was argued that Ruben was the “chosen one.” I’m sure that Kimberly’s fans & most certainly the ClayNation would agree to a not-insignificant degree. Some of Ruben’s & Kimberly’s fans were mightily put off by the star treatment that Clay got during Neal Sedaka week, where his performance of Solitaire was so good that it caused Sedaka to gush, and enabled Clay to eventually release it as a single. And, of course, the ClayNation would point to Simon’s outspoken support of Ruben as being the better choice for Idol as being a driving factor behind the Velvet Teddybear’s razor thin margin of victory. BOTTOM LINE: Just because your favorite doesn’t win (and Clay was my favorite! :-D) doesn’t mean that the vote was tampered with, even it if was close.
  • Season 3: Again, much like in Season 1, several contestants who were viewed as superior (LaToya & Jennifer) were eliminated before contestants who were generally viewed as inferior (John, Jon-Peter, & Jasmine). Good Lord, I remember the conspiracy theories that rose up in the aftermath of the 3 Divas being in the bottom 3! Regarding Fantasia singing Crazy Little Thing Called Love during Big Band week, I must agree that it was an odd choice; however, a quick check of the archives at RealityNewsOnline shows that the top 5 that week each sang two songs, and that the song that Fantasia really blew folks away with was her second song, What Are You Doing the Rest of Your Life. BOTTOM LINE: While I do think that Fantasia was the judges’ choice, and I know that I never really “got” her (personally, I liked either Diana or LaToya more…), I have no problem believing that enough of America really did like her, wasn’t coerced into liking her, and that she won fair & square. Besides, Season 3’s Top 10 was, IMO, the weakest of the 4 AI’s, which further explains why Fantasia seemingly had an easy path to the top — because it was (relatively speaking) easier than the challenges faced by Kelly, Ruben, and this year’s winner. (FWIW, I’d say that Season 4’s Top 10 is clearly/easily the most talented, top to bottom, followed by Seasons 2, 1, & lagging way behind, 3…)

So, I guess the overall bottom line is that I really don’t think there’s anything untoward going on with the proceedings this season. Sometimes, America just votes stupidly, where “stupidly” is most easily defined as different than I/you/whoever would. ;-) I don’t think that Bo is pegged as the winner, at least not by anyone other than me… :-D So far, the only singer who, IMO, has gotten the true “star” treatment in the production of their song was Constantine when he sang Bohemian Rhapsody. I truly think that any of the singers left in the competition, save Scott, are viewed by the producers as having tremendous upsides — each of them are very talented & could be easily marketed, although Bo might actually be the toughest sell to the mass market.

Nope, I just hope that the remainder of the competition goes as well as it has to this point. These people have put on some very good shows, and it’s been quite enjoyable. I’m looking forward to what’s going to happen as the endgame unfolds!

-ghp

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9 Comments so far ...

1. TKNo Gravatar

What I really love about the blogosphere, as I know it, is that if I’ve got a question I only have to ask my “go to” people for an expert opinion. You and Terrie are my American Idol experts! Great dissertation! I may even consider taking my daughter to the AI tour when it hits Minneapolis.

Comment on April 21, 2005 07:53 pm

Thank you for continuing the thread from my post with a thoughtful, civilized response. I appreciate your fair consideration of my points. I ask you to consider these, as well.

I agree with you regarding season one, which was the year of the learning curve. Tamyra Gray was clearly the judges’ favorite, Nikki McKibbin was the wildcard, and Kelly Clarkson was the up-and-comer. I believe it was exactly this unexpected outcome that led to tighter controls in succeeding seasons.

At the heart of American Idol is the tension between TV entertainment, which is the reason we watch, and the recording contract payoff, which is the reason music industry honchos created the show. The competition is the ultimate PR tool to create a built-in market for the winner and, with little to lose, the safest method in what has become a risk-averse industry. I think of Simon Cowell as the talent scout and agent for these honchos.

For both media halves to succeed, AI needs one breakout star, assumed to be the winner, that the industry honchos can package and one strong also-ran to make an entertaining TV contest. While the designated star receives special treatment, the also-ran has to receive his or her share of the spotlight, too, to keep the fan bases coming back. There are ways to tilt the contest toward a desired outcome without rigging the votes outright, which I have never contended.

AI2 is a near perfect example of this formula with Ruben Studdard as the star and Clay Aiken as the also-ran who was also the wildcard and up-and-comer. If you recall, Clay never got his due from the judges until Solitaire and Ruben was scarcely criticized. Even so, Simon (again, the honchos’ surrogate) bluntly admitted he couldn’t foresee a market for Clay’s talent.

During the final show, each contestant had three performances. Clay’s first was Vincent, an unusually wordy song, and he flubbed some of the lyrics. According to Clay’s mother, the Idol team changed his arrangement at the last minute. Must I be paranoid to consider the possibility of sabotage?

After Clay’s success, I think the honchos realized they could double their chances to profit. Fantasia Barrino received the early breakout treatment and LaToya London was the more marketable also-ran. John Stevens and Jon Peter Lewis were the early wildcards to be controlled.

The downside to this rigid formula is that it doesn’t allow for flexibility to reward other up-and-comers like Kimberly Locke in season two, Jennifer Hudson and George Huff in season three or Constantine Maroulis, Vonzell Solomon and now Anthony Federov in season four. You have to be a Clay-sized phenomenon like Constantine to beat the formula.

Obviously I think Bo Bice and Carrie Underwood were pegged as the breakout star and also-ran, not necessarily in that order. At first Simon seemed to relish the prospect of marketing Carrie, but I think she is more prudish than he likes. When Simon says, “You look too old-fashioned,” maybe you think he’s reacting as a male to a pretty female who’s covering her girly assets. I believe he’s thinking she won’t be easy to package as the next blonde pretty young thing.

Constantine emerged as the stronger also-ran and so he received the special treatment last week. After Bo skated dangerously near a departure that would upset the formula, this week he got the super special treatment, including the honor of introducing Ryan Seacrest’s video tribute and the opportunity to be the Southern gentleman we all know him to be when he was inserted centrally into the phony bottom three melodrama.

I can only try to read the honchos’ minds, so I’ll just have to guess that they think Constantine is marketable. In time, they will show their hand as they always do.

Comment on April 22, 2005 12:34 am
3. David BrazealNo Gravatar

I have to ask, where in the world is all this talk of “sabotage” coming from? Look at the show itself — it puts the “judges” right there on display to pick their favorites every week! Of course the judges have a favorite — and of course they are doing their best to manipulate the vote! There’s nothing scurrilous about this — it’s how the show is structured.

American Idol is a breakout TV hit. Whether the winner ever goes on to create a successful album, FOX is making boatloads of money on the show. I’m sure the producers are trying to maximize profit by producing successful recording stars, but at this point, American Idol will continue even if nobody from the show EVER makes it big.

Admittedly, I didn’t watch Season 1, and only caught the tail end of Season 2. But almost everything you say about “conspiracy” can just as easily be explained very simply: the judges have favorites, and they want their favorites to win. They use their comments to shape public opinion, and hope to influence the outcome of the weekly votes. To which I say, More power to you, Simon! You have a better ear than those teeny-boppers who are voting for no-talent baby-faced high school kids who will be lucky to end up in Branson.

In addition, if you’re contending there’s no “vote-rigging,” then you can’t also contend that Bo was artificially inserted into the “phony bottom-three melodrama.” He was in the bottom 3. It’s not the first time the voters have done something like that. Now, if you’re saying the voting IS rigged, that’s another matter.

Comment on April 22, 2005 09:53 am
4. ghpNo Gravatar

Terrie,

Thanks for responding! You bring up a great many valid & interesting points, and I appreciate the time you took to flesh out the original points you made over at your place.

To be honest, I think that the truth is probably somewhere in between what we’ve put out there — i.e., the producers are more manipulative than I’ve posited, but not quite as much as you’ve stated. I must admit, however, that the cynic in me is quite intrigued by the possibility/probability of your analysis (not to mention of the possibility of the ABC expose!).

I think that your refining of my take on season 1 is very good. In many ways, AI-1 was the purest & most honest/unaffected of the 4 editions (the same is true of Survivor:Borneo) — not necessarily better, mind you, but certainly more unaffected.

AI-2 is really an interesting case, as it should show the producers that they really don’t know best. Why? Well, IMO it’s clear that Clay was, is, and probably always will be the more popular (commercially, if not critically) of the two finalists. Even in the face of the visceral connection that Clay made with the ClayNation, the producers clung to the idea that Ruben was more marketable (for all that I agree with Simon, he can get rather unreasonably & pig-headedly fixated on how certain folks fit a current mold, rather than being able to identify how they might be able to make a new mold…). Kimberly certainly did throw a late scare into the mix, particularly when combined with Ruben’s bottom 3 appearance during the Sedaka-theme week that gave us Clay’s Solitaire. It was that bottom 3 appearance that also prompted one of the things that I most detest about AI — Seacrest reminding/imploring the viewing audience to “vote for your favorites!” rather than to vote for the best. Also recall that this was also the week that Josh Gracin was spared a (much deserved) visit to the bottom 3, and when Trenyce was eliminated. (Now Josh is a potential conspiracy in & of himself — was he a wildcard of America’s making, or a wildcard-creation of the producers? I honestly don’t know, but I find myself leaning towards the former…)

AI-3 was a cluster-you-know-what all the way around, IMO. It was indicative of the huge flaws in the process used to determine the top 12. The good thing is that it caused the producers to revamp the process so that we got this edition’s superior method (which has been borne out by the consistent & deep talent level…), as well as a tweaking of the age limits (as AI-3 was hurt by immature, undeveloped talent). The producers wanted & pushed the “3 Divas,” with Fantasia being the first among the equals. The producers also got burned by their dalliance with Hawaii, where the support of Jasmine got a little out of control. John Stevens & Jon-Peter Lewis were byproducts of the fact that there was no real male talent other than George Huff (and some might say William Hung! LOL), so they did the best that they could with J & J as sideshow attractions (though John ended up staying way too long due to the sympathy factor…).

AI-4, well, I think that if the producers were searching for themes/angles/stars, they gave themselves a lot of options this year, but one seems to have been harder for them to keep a handle on — “The Rockers!” Constantine got all of the early face time, with his whole leaving-the-band angle, and Bo didn’t even get any screen time until late in the Hollywood phase of the competition. At that point, I think the producers had Constantine pegged as the go-to-guy, and Bo as the foil. During the whittling of the field from 24 to 12, however, an odd thing happened — Bo consistently & clearly outshone Constantine. Prior to this week, that had changed somewhat with Constantine’s reemergence (which I think started with his great cover of I Think I Love You. What’s funny, though, is that the producers now have a true battle between Bo & Constantine that I really don’t think they truly anticipated! As for the girls, it’s been obvious that Carrie’s been the anointed one, almost since she first was shown during try-outs. But, even given her obvious (as you so wonderfully put it) “girly assets”, it’s been just as plain that her undeniable vocal talents aren’t an exact match to the current Pop scene. This has left the door open for Vonzell, particularly due to her Kelly-like rise from the back-of-the-pack, to assume the femme-foil role from Nadia.

So, I guess I still don’t think that Bo alone has been anointed; rather I’m more inclined to think that there’s been a final 4 that’s been anointed for a while now: Bo & Constantine, and Carrie & a femme-foil (originally Nadia but now Vonzell). From a pure, Simon-esque, Pop-marketing-machine point of view, IMO, none of them are without risk. I think Carrie is still the winner desired by the producers, and I’m really not sure which of the guys they’d like to have win, if a guy had to win. I wouldn’t ever put sabotage (subtle or not) beyond the producers. That said, I’m not sure why they’d do it this go-around (even as I could understand it in past editions) given the relative equality of the top 4 (assuming, accurately I think, that Scott & Anthony are “wildcards” that have served their purpose…).

Or, (self-deprecatingly) I’m just thinking WAY too much about all of this! :-D
-ghp

Comment on April 22, 2005 10:16 am
5. TKNo Gravatar

Gee! Can my day get any better? I got my two AI experts to debate AI on the same blog page. I’m printing this out to study over the weekend. It will be a nice break from all that religious talk ;)
You guys are great!

Comment on April 22, 2005 12:22 pm

Hi, Theresa, GHP (I apologize for not knowing your name)and David!

David, just to clarify, the “phony bottom three melodrama” happened this week when two groups of three contestants were divided on the stage and Bo was asked to decide which was the safe group and to stand with them. Last season, when they did that to sweetie pie George Huff, he chose the wrong group and I was outraged at their heartless, careless manipulation.

My concept of vote-rigging is actually tampering with the voting procedure and results. That is what I would never contend unless I had solid proof and I have no legitimate reason to believe that has ever happened.

Comment on April 22, 2005 02:23 pm
7. David BrazealNo Gravatar

Okay, sorry Terrie. I didn’t see the results show this week. Yeah, that really is a manufactured melodrama.

I think overall I would say that I don’t disagree with your theory that the producers have favorites. I just think their machinations are generally so obvious that they don’t really qualify as “conspiracy.”

And by the way, Theresa — I’m not an expert on much of anything. But I do have an opinion on everything, which makes me a great blog contributor! (So I suppose you could say I’m an expert blog contributor. I think I’ll put that on my resume!)

Comment on April 22, 2005 11:15 pm

Glen (thanks to Theresa’s blog, now I know your name), I noticed two immediate points of interest at your blog at first glance. We both have posts titled Cancer Sucks. I read yours and followed the link to Mom’s Cancer, which makes for powerful reading. I am sharing it with a friend who had lung cancer surgery on Wednesday and another friend who is undergoing a similar treatment regimen as the subject of the comic strip for recurrent breast cancer. Thank you!

I noted that you have written several entries about American Idol. Now that you are thinking way too much about the show, have you considered submitting any articles to Beavers on Idol (www.beaversonidol.com)? There’s no money or glory in it, but James Shepherd is a generous, knowledgeable editor/webmaster who always appreciates interesting submissions.

What do you say, Glen? And what about you, Theresa? I double dare you!

Comment on April 23, 2005 01:11 am
9. TKNo Gravatar

I checked the site out and was wowed by Terrie’s several submissions. I won’t flatter myself into thinking that I know ANYTHING about AI other than I have enjoyed it this season. I especially like that my whole family, mom, dad and two teenagers, all watch TV together on the show nights. That’s the best thing of all! That’s probably the only angle I could write on, not to belittle family togetherness. It’s been nice to broaden my horizons a little; I get a little wrapped up in things Lutheran, at times. ;) I do love music, especially good old rock and roll.

Comment on April 23, 2005 10:09 pm
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