Territorial Bloggings

The first results show.

Yay!

It’s nice to see that they’ve remembered to keep things moving along at a relatively brisk pace, with a minimum of fluff. The group number was a bit much, but at least it was pleasant. Ryan & the judges were a little cranky & contentious again, but it’s always hard to tell if that’s genuine or scripted — as long as they don’t overdo it, it’s rather entertaining.

Fortunately, the producers didn’t make Ryan look like too much of an ass, in terms of being cruel in how he went about notifying the folks who were cut that they were, indeed, cut. I mean, there’s no real easy, painless way to do it, and sometimes it really is kindest to wield that sharp knife quickly.

As to the results…

Two of the results didn’t surprise me at all — On both the “I Want:” and “I Think:” predictions, I had listed Bobby & Stevie. So, I can claim them as clearly accurate predictions. Not that it was all that difficult to see, however, so I can’t feel too good about my predictive abilities. Why, you ask? Well…

The other two cuts — Becky & Patrick — were both initially surprising to me, as they were both in the middle groups that I had labeled as being safe because there were 12 contestants in their respective groups. However, I had one significant oversight/omission in my analytical process…

As Simon is always reminding us (and as my wife also reminded me as we watched the results show), in order to be successful, one has to stand out from the crowd. And one thing that AI has taught us over the years is that sometimes having a bad performance can actually be a good thing when it comes to getting votes!

Becky & Patrick were unforgettably middle of the pack, and nothing (not even Becky’s hotness, or Patrick’s potential) could make up for that fact. Others who were bad (e.g., Heather, Brenna, Kinnik, & David) benefited from it, because their fanbases were able to sense the vulnerability that rose from the badness, and worked to overcome it. Others with middle-of-the-pack performances (e.g., Kevin, Sway, Bucky, & Will) were ok because they have obvious fanbases who will protect them.

I’m actually a bit chagrined that I forgot to incorporate this factor into my analysis at this early stage of the competition. It’s just as valid a factor now as it will be in the finals, when we get our inevitable shocking! & outrageous! elimination (e.g., Tamyra, Jennifer Hudson, or Constantine…). It’s an added variable that makes predictions a little tougher, but it’s a very valid variable (I love alliteration :grin:) nonetheless.

Yup, I like AI, probably more than I should, if only because I end up spending way too much time thinking about it. But, at least it keeps me out of trouble…

-ghp

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